Vol. 42, No. 01
01/01/2026
Evaluating Trump’s Tariffs
AT A GLANCE
• We are now able to evaluate Trump’s tariffs.
• Trump’s tariffs performed well as a tax swap.
• They were moderately effective at opening foreign markets.
• From a constitutional standpoint, they were a failure.
If Donald Trump’s goal is to “Make America Great Again,” one of his signature means is the use of tariffs. Besides their possible role in restoring U.S. manufacturing jobs while raising money from foreigners, tariffs are very “Trumpian” because they enrage the Republican Establishment and D.C. think tanks. No wonder the president said, “‘Tariffs’ is the most beautiful word to me in the dictionary.”
Acting on his affection, Trump’s second administration shocked global markets with the April 2 “Liberation Day” announcement of across-the-board tariff hikes imposed on virtually all countries, with a baseline 10-percent rate supplemented by a “reciprocal” tariff rate tailored to each individual country. Since then, Americans have held vigorous debate on both the theory and execution of Trump’s tariffs, including oral arguments before the Supreme Court. As we near the end of the first year of Trump’s second term, we can take stock of the president’s unorthodox policy.
Academic Justification
Contrary to the smug claims of his harshest critics, Trump’s reliance on tariffs is not due merely to ignorance of the teachings of economics. Indeed, the original chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers (who took leave to become a replacement member on the Board of Governors at the Fed), Stephen Miran, has a Ph.D. in economics from Harvard. In November 2024, from his perch as a senior strategist at Hudson Bay Capital, Miran published a 41-page report titled “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System.”
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The full article includes detailed analysis of Massie's legislative strategy, exclusive quotes from the interview, and insider information about upcoming votes.
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