Democrats in general and most likely insiders in Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign are terrified that the world’s most famous word-salad maker is headed for a loss in November. One reason: She is behind in polling in the all-important battleground states that can decide an election, The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday.
GOP opponent and former President Donald Trump is drawing support from traditionally Democratic constituencies, notably the unions, the newspaper explained.
Meanwhile, far-left political commentator Mark Halperin said Harris is in danger of losing six and possibly all seven of the battleground states.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of national polls has Harris ahead of Trump by a thin 2 points. But the RCP averages in the battleground states give Trump the advantage in five of seven.
Democrats “Worried”
With its frank assessment, the Journal’s offering couldn’t have been welcome at the Harris campaign.
“Democrats have privately grown worried about Kamala Harris’s standing among working-class voters in the crucial “blue-wall” states — particularly in Michigan,” the newspaper reported:
Donald Trump has assiduously courted union members and non college-educated white voters with a message focused on high costs, manufacturing and the threat of China to the U.S. economy. Senior Democrats, including Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, want a sharper economic appeal from Harris and have conveyed those concerns to her campaign, according to people familiar with the conversations. They also would like the vice president to spend more time campaigning in the state.
Michigan Democrats have urged the campaign to make more overt appeals to auto workers and blue-collar workers by emphasizing the administration’s work to grow the industry and build new plants.
That’s because the polls say that Harris and Trump are tied in the Wolverine State, along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. “Winning the blue wall, along with Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, remains her strongest path to 270 Electoral College votes, as she is doing slightly worse in polls of competitive Sunbelt states,” the newspaper continued
More bad news came from far-left U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin. Her campaign’s internal poll gave Trump a 3-point lead in the state, the Journal reported. A campaign insider told the newspaper that “much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with non college-educated men.”
Another problem for Harris: Some big trade unions, traditionally Democrats, don’t much care for the uber-wealthy senator. Some hard-left unions are backing Harris, but the International Brotherhood of Teamsters declined to endorse her, the newspaper observed, as did the International Association of Firefighters.
Both imprudently endorsed President Joe Biden in 2020.
Halperin: Battleground Losses Ahead
Speaking on the Morning Meeting podcast, Mark Halperin’s prognostication was even worse.
“Can you win a short campaign with an untested candidate?” he asked. “And what I’m telling you is happening in private polling is she’s got a problem,” he said, citing the Journal story.
Halperin outlined the difficult road ahead for Harris.
“We all know from our contacts in both campaigns that Pennsylvania is tough for her right now,” he said:
And without Pennsylvania, there are paths, but there aren’t many. There’s no path without Wisconsin. … Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign poll shows Harris down three in Wisconsin. We all said yesterday, Wisconsin and Michigan are looking worse for Harris than before. Baldwin has Harris down three.
Halperin also warned about listening to far-left MSNBC — also known as MSDNC — tell viewers “how great things are going for the Harris campaign.”
In fact, “very robust private polling,” he said, “shows she’s in a lot of trouble.”
Continued Halperin:
The conversation I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours, extremely bullish. You think of the seven battleground states, which ones is Harris in danger of losing? I would say Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. I’m not saying she’ll lose all six, but she’s in danger. The only one that the Democrats say she’s not in danger of losing is [Nevada]. You guys agree with me. She could lose any of those six, right? I mean, she could lose all seven, but Democrats will tell you they’re worried about those six, they’re less worried about the seventh. I don’t know any Trump person who says they’re worried about losing any of the seven. They don’t think they’re the favorite in Michigan and Wisconsin, but they’re not worried about losing them. You don’t hear from them, “Oh my goodness.”
Trump’s people tell Halperin that their chances of victory are improving in the Sun and Rust Belt states, and Trump is stronger than Harris in Pennsylvania.
“If the whole thing’s about the Electoral College, you take any of the — any of the Sun or the Rust Belt states away from her, it’s very difficult for her to win, very difficult,” Halperin said. “It’s not mathematically impossible, but it probably won’t happen if she loses any of them.”
Polling Data
The only poll in the RCP national average that consistently shows Trump ahead of Harris is Rasmussen’s, which gives Trump a 2-point lead.
Almost all the rest decidedly favor Harris by anywhere from 1 to 6 points.
Still, the RCP electoral map has Trump winning 29 states and 296 electoral votes. 270 votes are required to win the election.
RCP predicts that Trump will prevail in five of the seven battleground states. Their model has him losing Nevada and Wisconsin, but winning Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
H/T: Breitbart
