The latest results from Quinnipiac University posted at Real Clear Politics on Tuesday show the president beating any of the top Democrat contenders in Iowa and Arizona in the upcoming presidential primaries, but losing to every one of them nationally.
In general election polling, Donald Trump loses to Joe Biden by nine points, to Bernie Sanders by eight points, to Elizabeth Warren by seven points, to Pete Buttigieg by five points, to Mayor Bloomberg by six points, and to Amy Klobuchar by four points.
Prediction polls (aka betting sites), on the other hand, show a much different picture. Mark Angelides of Liberty Nation posted one betting site’s results: Trump is even money to win next November while his likely Democrat opponent, Joe Biden, has just one chance in six to take the prize.
Other betting sites such as ElectionBettingOdds.com, Betfair.com, and Predictit.com show nearly identical results.
What’s remarkable is that these results have remained steady during a time when Democrats have ratcheted up the pressure on the president with claims (backed by articles of impeachment) that he misused the powers of his office and should be removed. Angelides expressed his astonishment:
Democrats are moving ahead with impeachment, the Michael Horowitz report failed to find evidence of wrongdoing by the FBI in its investigation of President Trump and his campaign (despite numerous lies and omissions described). This should be the worst possible week for the president.
But it’s not. A late surge in job approval ratings gives the president a 5% boost, placing him 7% above where Obama was during the same period of his presidency….
In what should have been the most difficult week for President Trump, he has maintained a strong lead [in prediction polling].
Part of the answer is the health of the economy. The results of a Quinnipiac poll released on Tuesday showed that nearly six out of 10 Americans believe they are better off now that they were in 2016.
Wall Street has soared to unseen heights, consumer confidence is near all-time highs, wages are increasing faster than inflation, unemployment continues to drop, and consumers are continuing to spend at record levels.
The traction Democrats hoped to gain from their efforts to slow the Trump train through impeachment isn’t showing up in polls. More than half of all registered voters, according to Quinnipiac, now think the president should NOT be impeached, the first time the pollster showed such results. The same poll showed voters giving Trump the highest score of his presidency over his handling of the economy, with a 54 percent approval rating. Nearly 70 percent of registered voters perceive his economy to be either good or excellent, up almost 10 points from a month earlier.
Fifty-three percent of Catholics are planning to vote for Trump next November, or are at least open to the possibility.
John Waldon, president of Goldman Sachs, told CNBC’s Wilfred Frost on Tuesday:
We’re pretty constructive on the overall economy. Certainly, in the United States in particular, the economy feels if anything like it might be accelerating again from what had been a little bit more of a patchy 2019.
I do think the Fed’s easing bias has made a big impact. So we’re seeing that implication of easier policy coming through in the economy and it’s become much more of a stimulant for particularly consumers, but corporations as well.
There are the continuing trade talks, which appear to moving closer to an agreement on Phase One. Likely passage by the House of the grievously-flawed USMCA is being perceived as a “win” for Trump, despite its sovereignty-damaging provisions.
As the Democrats move from “Russia Russia Russia” to “impeach impeach impeach,” the average voter remains unimpressed. Instead, he is likely to vote his pocketbook once again and give the president another four years to complete his agenda for America.
Photo: AP Images
An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to The New American, writing primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].
