USMCA’s Future in Doubt as Renewal Deadline Approaches

Less than a week before the renewal deadline for the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) arrives, the trade deal’s future looks increasingly in doubt.

On July 1, the United States, Canada, and Mexico will need to decide whether to extend the USMCA for an additional 16-year period. According to Article 34.7, Section 2 of the USMCA, “On the sixth anniversary of the entry into force of this Agreement [July 1, 2026], the [USMCA] Commission shall meet to conduct a ‘joint review’ of the operation of this Agreement.” Section 3 elaborates, “As part of the Commission’s joint review, each Party shall confirm, in writing, through its head of government, if it wishes to extend the term of this Agreement for another 16-year period.” If any one of the three countries declines to extend the agreement, a series of annual reviews will commence, lasting either until all three countries agree to renew the agreement or until it expires in 2036.

No Clean Extension

U.S. President Donald Trump has indicated that he will not agree to a clean extension. In comments to reporters on June 10, he said that “I’m not looking to renew it,” and explained that “the primary reason I made the deal is that NAFTA was the worst trade deal I’ve ever seen.”

A week later, speaking to reporters in France, Trump said that he is “not a big fan” of the USMCA, and only “liked it because it got us out of NAFTA.” He continued, “I would rather not have the agreement, but I may sign it…. We do better as a country if we don’t have ​an agreement.”

Trump’s comments mirror those from U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, who on December 4 said that exiting the agreement is “always a scenario.”

Meanwhile, Republican U.S. senators are urging Trump to renew the agreement. For example, Senator John Boozman, chairman of the Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry, said that “USMCA is very important, and I think that the president will ultimately negotiate a good deal.”

Regional Integration

The USMCA, which replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 2020, is a major step toward a full-blown North American Union. Contrary to the narrative that the agreement is an improvement over NAFTA, it actually deepened regional integration toward a supranational structure resembling the European Union.

Although the joint-review process is an opportunity to restore U.S. sovereignty, it also risks further entangling the United States in globalist agreements. With annual reviews over 10 years — if Trump refuses a clean extension — there is a risk that the three countries will eventually reach an agreement with provisions that further integrate the United States into a North American regional body, hastening the erosion of national sovereignty.

Ultimately, the United States must terminate — not renegotiate — the USMCA. Urge your U.S. representative and senators to enact legislation completely withdrawing the United States from this dangerous agreement.

This article is part of The New American’s weekly online newsletter Insider Report, which is emailed to TNA subscribers each week. Click here to subscribe to The New American to receive the Insider Report and access exclusive content.