From Sanctions to Diesel Deals: Trump Desperate to Lower Fuel Prices Before Midterms
U.S. policymakers can’t decide whether to sanction or buy Russian energy. The latest move by President Donald Trump suggests he’s desperate to lower fuel prices before the midterm elections, which are expected to go badly for Republicans. Losing both congressional chambers would likely mire Trump, and possibly members of his Cabinet, in nonstop investigations and impeachments.
Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 into law on September 18. The law targets Russian energy. Twenty-one days later, the president announced a deal with the Kremlin for nearly five million tons of Russian diesel.
The move comes less than a year after the U.S. leveled sanctions against Russian oil companies Lukoil and Rosneft.
Dealing With Russia
On Friday, Trump announced on his Truth Social account that he just got off the phone with Russian President Vladimir Putin after making a deal to lower diesel prices “FAST” for “RECORD NUMBERS” of Americans. “Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority,” Trump emphasized. Oil futures rose on Monday.
The Russians confirmed the deal. They will lift their ban on diesel exports to keep their end of the agreement. Moscow imposed its national ban early in July after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries throughout the year squeezed domestic supplies. Russian media organ TASS reported that the Kremlin “will lift its ban on diesel exports ahead of schedule and is ready to supply 300,000 tons of diesel in October, increasing the volume to 500,000 tons in November and 1 million tons in December.” It added that monthly supplies may reach three million tons “further down the road.”
In return, Washington is temporarily lifting sanctions on Russian diesel sales. The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued a license allowing the sale and importation of Russian diesel. This does not, however, lift sanctions imposed by the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Energy Ceasefire
On Sunday, the president made another energy-related announcement. “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!” he said.
Accusations that the ceasefire was violated immediately popped up. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of attacking Ukrainian “gas stations, energy infrastructure, and other facilities.” He added: “I think it was Putin’s answer to President Trump. And the message from Russia was very clear — they don’t know anything about the energy ceasefire.”
There is no indication the Russians have agreed to this “energy ceasefire.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in a briefing on Monday: “Communication is ongoing. As soon as we have something to say on the issue, we will certainly inform you.” He added that Putin has said that he wants “lasting peace, not a ceasefire.”
Zelensky, understandably, doesn’t like Trump’s diesel decision, saying the U.S. should have made a diesel deal with Ukraine. “After all, we’re the ones who determine whether oil refineries operate,” he said.
Ukraine doesn’t produce a significant amount of diesel fuel. The statement is a suggestion that Kiev will halt its attacks on Russian energy facilities if Moscow stops hitting Ukraine’s power systems.
Trump Warns Zelensky
Over the weekend, Trump warned Zelensky to stop hitting refineries. “We said ‘you can do whatever you want to Russia, but don’t hit the refineries,’ because that’s a world problem. … And he wants to make problems for the world,” Trump said. “We told him ‘don’t hit the diesel fuel’ … and what does he do? He goes and hits the diesel fuel. … He better d**n well stop.”
Trump also floated the idea that Ukraine should “get a new leader who can make a deal because [Zelensky] could have made many deals and for some reason he never does.” Zelensky, whose term ran out more than two years ago, told ABC that Ukraine would hold elections if the Russians agree to a 60-day ceasefire. Ukraine imposed martial law after Russia invaded, and has banned all elections since.
The Russians are not likely to consider a ceasefire, mainly because they believe Ukraine would use it to rearm and regroup.
So what happens if the Ukrainians don’t stop hitting Russian refineries? Reports emerged today saying the U.S. is threatening to stop sharing intelligence with the Ukrainians. CNN reported:
The Trump administration has warned Ukraine and allies in Europe that the US could suspend intelligence sharing and European purchases of US weapons for Ukraine if Kyiv does not halt its deep strikes on Russian energy facilities, two European officials told CNN. The warnings from the State Department and the Pentagon were sent over the weekend to officials in Ukraine and Europe, including communications from the US military directly to Ukrainian commanders. A US official said that US negotiators told the Ukrainians the United States was a strong partner, providing munitions and intelligence, and so Ukraine shouldn’t take actions that hurt American consumers.
America’s entire meddling in this war has been contrary to the interests of its citizens. It shouldn’t take the prospect of bad election outcomes for the White House to recognize this. Americans have nothing to gain from involvement in this war. It’s not our war.
European Pushback
The diesel deal has, expectedly, triggered grumbling by the Eurocrats in the European Union. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas complained the deal would provide Russia with more money to keep waging war, which is obviously true. “This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t,” she added. The Germans vowed to not only stay the sanctions course, but go further. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, who has been one of the most zealous pro-Ukraine saber-rattlers, said a diesel deal like the one Trump and Putin agreed on is “out of the question” for Europe. “Russia will only negotiate seriously under pressure, and that is why we are sticking to our sanctions against Russia,” he told reporters.
On Monday, Trump pushed back on the European pushback. “The European Union paid Russia 250 Billion Dollars for Energy, and the Fake News Media doesn’t want to get near that story,” he said on Truth Social. “I made the right choice for the American People — ALWAYS, AMERICA FIRST!”
There is a lot of truth to this. The EU is planning, or at least it says it is, to end its dependence on Russian natural gas, implementing a full ban next year. However, it bought a record 12.18 million tons of Russian LNG in the first nine months of 2026, according to reports. That puts EU payments to Russia at €7.88 billion ($8.8 billion) for that time period. “Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, EU member states have paid Russia more than €238 billion [$265.5 billion] for fossil fuels and energy supplies.”
Not a Big Deal?
Compared to the international drama it’s stirring, the Trump-Putin agreement is not even that big a deal. The U.S. uses about 2.94 million barrels of diesel per day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. That comes out to 395,000 tons, more than what the Russians are supposed to provide to the U.S. in all of October. The November supply is supposed to amount to 500,000 tons, which means the U.S. will receive less than two days’ worth of diesel from the Russians.
Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, called the 300,000- and 500,000-ton numbers “quite small.” However, if the Russians deliver the three million tons later on, he said, that may bring “some relief on diesel prices.”
That’s a big if. Lipow also said that we shouldn’t count those barrels yet, telling The Hill:
I’m quite skeptical about those type of volumes being exported, given that currently Russia has imposed a diesel export ban in October. Now, it’s certainly possible that once the harvest season ends in Russia, that we do see an increase in diesel exports, but I believe that Ukraine is going to continue to attack Russian refineries to impact on their ability to produce transportation fuels.
The announcement about this deal made no impact on the markets. West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude actually rose on Monday, by about two percent. The spike is largely attributed to a recent attack by the Iranian-backed Houthis on Saudi Arabia’s airport in Riyadh, a consequence of the Iran War that Trump launched without congressional approval back in February. So, while the president blames the Ukrainians for high fuel prices, Americans didn’t see a significant price jump until he started the war with Iran.
Midterm Ploy
Nevertheless, the White House appears to be trying to do everything it can to lower prices before the midterm elections, just a few weeks away. Americans are frustrated about the high costs of everything, and polls are projecting they’re going to punish Republicans for it.
This diesel deal also suggests Trump is making decisions impulsively. To arrange an energy deal with a country you sanctioned just weeks ago signals lack of foresight, deliberation, and a clear strategy. Circumstances are not so different today than they were on September 18. Why issue the sanctions in the first place when you knew the Russians were such a large global supplier of diesel?
Making matters more absurd, buying Russian energy indirectly helps Iran. Russia provides targeting information to Iran, which then uses that intel to hit U.S. assets in the Middle East. The Iranians have hit hundreds of U.S. targets in the Middle East, costing us many billions of dollars. More importantly, the Iranians have killed more than a dozen American troops.
So the Europeans are funding the Russians while supporting Ukraine in fighting the Russians. Meanwhile, the U.S. will soon be funding a major Iran ally while fighting Iran. How does this make any sense? It doesn’t. But these wars were never what they said they were about in the first place.
