War With China?
On July 27 of last year, General Mike Minihan, a four-star general who heads the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command, sent a memo to all his officers predicting war with China in 2025, and instructing them to report back by February 28 on the steps they will take to ensure that they will be ready to fight “inside the first island chain.” Tellingly, he also advised the men under his command to make sure their emergency contact information and legal affairs were up-to-date. Minihan added, “I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me [we] will fight in 2025.” After news of the memorandum broke, several members of Congress agreed with Minihan, while the Biden Defense Department took a different stance, pointing out to Fox News that Minihan’s statements were “not representative of the department’s view on China.”
What are we to make of such contradictory predictions? Until recently, conventional wisdom held that any Chinese attempt on Taiwan was at least 10 to 15 years in the future. But recently, China’s dictator Xi Jinping has conducted almost daily acts of military aggression against Taiwan, coupled with a massive military buildup and frequent not-so-veiled threats against both Taiwan and the United States. It is very clear what the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) intends to do, and the threat is imminent. But what are China’s prospects for conquering the independent island republic, and should the United States get involved?
The Modern Reality
The history of China and Taiwan is long and complex, but in spite of all the setbacks, betrayals, twists, and turns, the modern-day reality is that Taiwan has become one of the world’s freest, most prosperous, and most successful states. For more than 40 years, the United States and the rest of the Western world have tried to have their cake and eat it too, leaving the question of Taiwan’s sovereignty ambiguous to placate Communist China, while enjoying the fruits of trade and investment with both countries. Along with the diplomatic and political ambiguities related to the “Taiwan question,” the United States until recently had a policy of “strategic ambiguity,” whereby we promised to keep Taiwan supplied with defensive weapons, but left hazy the question of what we would do in the event of an attempted Chinese invasion.
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