An internal poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (first reported by startup political newsletter Punchbowl News and confirmed by The Hill) revealed that Democrats running for reelection in November are in deeper trouble than they originally thought.
In a generic matchup between Republicans and Democrats, the generic Republican is beating the generic Democrat by eight percentage points, 47-39.
DCCC chairman Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.) told party leaders at a luncheon on Thursday that the party’s candidates “are getting crushed” by Republicans, particularly in so-called battleground states.
A second poll, commissioned by the Republican super PAC Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) focused on districts where Biden won in 2020 by more than eight percentage points. Biden is now underwater in those districts by eight points and is dragging down the reelection prospects of Democrats in those districts, from likely to questionable.
As BizPacReview expressed it, “Democrats typically enjoy a three- or four-point advantage in the generic ballot. Not this time. And that spells bad news for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s razor-thin majority. [This] could signal a red wave for House Republicans and a major stomping for House Democrats.”
The news got even worse. Forty-nine percent of voters in those battleground state districts say they prefer having a “Republican in Congress to provide a check on Biden, rather than a Democrat to help pass Biden and Pelosi’s agenda.”
PunchBowl News, in reporting on the polls, declared that “House Dems are getting crushed,” that they are “in worse political peril that they’ve let on publicly,” and that they highlight “the incredibly perilous position Democrats find themselves in.”
In increasing peril are Democratic Representatives Abigail Spanberger of Virginia, Kim Schrier of Washington, Mike Levin of California, Angie Craig of Minnesota, Susie Lee of Nevada, Jahana Hayes of Connecticut, and Kurt Schrader of Oregon.
Early returns show Schrader losing badly in the primaries to a progressive newcomer, making the district increasingly vulnerable to a Republican in November.
RealClear Politics (RCP) confirms the difficulty for Democrats revealed in those two polls. Its present generic congressional vote average shows Republicans leading Democrats by nearly two percentage points. At FiveThirtyEight, the generic Republican’s advantage is larger, at 2.3 percentage points.
Democrats are putting the best face they can on the bad news, declaring that their candidates are actually doing better than Biden in the polls, and that the best strategy would be to use the phrase “MAGA-Republican” in their campaign ads against their opponents. This would tie their opponents to former president Donald Trump, which they believe would help their cause.
At present, Trump-endorsed candidates have won 53 out of 57 contests so far, so the move by Democrats could backfire.
Democratic leaders also note that those polls were taken before the Supreme Court “leak,” which they feel could move pro-abortion voters to close the gap in November. However, other polls show that the average likely voter is much more concerned about high gas and grocery prices, which they are blaming on the current administration.
