Report: GOP to Lose House in Midterms; Trump Approval Rating Still Tanking
The Cook Political Report says Republicans will lose the majority in the U.S. House of Representatives on November 3, a prognostication borne out by polling data.
The future has looked grim for the GOP ever since President Donald Trump knuckled under to Israel and attacked Iran on February 26. His approval ratings worsen by the day, as the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls well shows.
The question is how bad a beating the GOP will take when voters go to the polls.
Latest RCP Data
The latest from RCP on the major issues that should determine the elections — Trump’s job approval on Iran, the economy, and inflation — portend doom for the House Republicans.
Just in the last few days, numbers have worsened for Trump: 59.9 percent of those polled disapprove of the job he is doing, versus 38.8 percent who approve. Days ago, 58.9 percent disapproved.
Trump’s numbers on inflation and the war in Iran stayed the same: 69.1 percent disapprove of his job on inflation against 27.4 percent who approve, while 62.5 percent disapprove of the reckless, unconstitutional war against Iran, versus 32.6 percent who approve.
And despite Trump’s crowing about the “Golden Age” he created for Americans, 62.8 percent of those polled disapprove of his job on the economy. That is up from 62.2 percent a couple of days ago. Those who approve: 34 percent, a whopping 28.8-point spread.
Other issues — crime, immigration, foreign policy, and the Israel-Hamas and Russia-Ukraine wars — stayed level.
The bottom-line thought for the GOP is this: Trump has deeply wounded the party chances in the midterms just weeks away.
The generic congressional vote and multiple Senate races also show the GOP in trouble. RCP shows the Democrats ahead of Republicans 50.6 percent to 41.9 percent, also worse for the GOP than days ago.
Democrats are polling ahead of Republicans in nine senate races: Iowa, Ohio, Maine, Texas, Alaska, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.
Cook Report
But now comes the influential Cook Political Report, which is paywalled but summarized by Axios.
“House Republicans are on track to lose their majority just a little over one month out from the midterm elections, according to a nonpartisan election forecaster,” the website explained.
Result: The report “shifted 15 House races toward Democrats on Friday, the latest sign that the political environment is deteriorating for Republicans.”
The party of abortion and sodomy needs just three seats to put Republicans back in the minority.
Cook now projects Democrats are most likely to gain between five and 15 seats, which would give them a 220-230 seat majority next year. …
Republicans have spent much of the cycle arguing that redistricting and a sizable financial advantage would give them more breathing room.
But new Democratic maps in California and Utah are largely offsetting Republicans’ redistricting gains elsewhere, according to Cook.
While Republicans have more money than Democrats, the latter still have the advantage in 208 races, versus 205 for the GOP.
“There are now 17 Republican-held seats rated as Toss Ups, compared with just five Democratic-held seats,” Axios explained:
Republicans would need to win a majority of the Toss Up races to keep control of the House, according to Cook.
Worse still, “some of the most competitive House races are overwhelmingly in districts President Trump won in 2024.” Trump is behind in those districts because Americans are fed up with his “handling of the economy.”
But are they undoubtedly furious about another war in the Middle East for Israel.
Republicans are whistling past the graveyard. “Nobody outside the D.C. bubble cares what a bunch of pundits slap on a race rating,” said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella:
House races are won in the districts, and Republicans have the stronger ground game, air superiority across the battleground, and historic financial firepower while Democrats are still begging for cash just to prop up their socialist bailout fund.
But a Democratic spokesman thinks “two years of raising costs and lying to the American people” have “all but assured that [House Republicans] will lose the majority in November.”
Trump’s Broken Promises
Undoubtedly, Americans alarmed about the economy — notably $4.50 per gallon of regular gas, $5.39 for premium, and $6.50 for diesel, which is driving a spike in grocery and other prices — explain Trump’s and the GOP’s tanking in the polls.
But prices are high because of the war in Iran, which has driven up the price of fuel. The war has virtually shut down the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries 20 percent of the global oil supply. Farmers run equipment on diesel. Truck drivers deliver consumer goods in trucks fueled by diesel.
Trump and his spear carriers repeatedly promised no more foreign wars during the 2024 campaign. Indeed, the promises of no more wars, mass deportations, and lower prices for gas and food were the cornerstones of his campaign and keys to his victory.
“I will tell you you’re not going to have a war with me and you’re not going to have a third world war with me, that I can tell you,” Trump said in June 2024.
“The years of war, weakness, and chaos will be over,” he said at the Republican National Convention the next month.
“Under Trump, we will have no more wars, no more disruptions, and we will have prosperity and peace for all,” he said in August 2024.
And on Election Night, having defeated Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, Trump offered this:
I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars.
