Polls: Talarico Pulls Ahead of Paxton in Texas; GOP Chances in November Bleak
Despite his public statements that show he is a far-left sexual revolutionary, Democrat James Talarico now leads Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the Texas U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by GOP Deep Stater John Cornyn.
Talarico leads Paxton by 1.2 points in the Real Clear Politics average of polls. His chances of beating the Lone Star State attorney general, a MAGA-backed candidate who upset Cornyn in May’s primary race, now exceed 50 percent.
Whether Talarico can pull off a win in the still-red state will depend on whether he can survive the coming onslaught from Paxton. Paxton and his team will paint Talarico — who believes “God is nonbinary” — as a friend of weirdos and sex perverts given public statements that put him squarely at odds with normal Texans.
The Numbers
Of the last six polls, Talarico has won four and tied one. His largest margin came in the Texas A&M/Siena survey at the end of July that had him beating Paxton 47 percent to 43.
A TPOR poll in mid July gave Talarico a 45-40 victory. Paxton has never bested Talarico by more than two points. The RCP average has Talarico ahead by 1.2 points, 46-44.8. Polymarket says Talarico has a 52-percent chance to win the election.
Given the growing unpopularity of President Trump because of his war on Iran and the resultant crippling consumer prices, Talarico’s move past Paxton is not surprising.
Americans can’t stand the president, and say so in no uncertain terms: 57.2 percent of those polled disapprove of the overall job he’s doing, against 39.6 percent who approve.
On Iran, a main reason Trump is tanking among even his most die-hard supporters, 60.6 percent disapprove versus 34.6 percent who approve, a 26-point gap.
His numbers on the economy are equally dismal: 60.8 percent disapprove.
No wonder Republicans running for the Senate and House appear headed for a good shellacking in November. RCP’s measure of the generic congressional vote has Democrats ahead of Republicans 48.2-41.8. Republicans have prevailed in just 10 polls since January 2025.
Talarico’s Kooky Ideas
Paxton will attack Talarico on the outright crazy things he has said.
“As Paxton’s victory appeared imminent, the NRSC put out a statement bashing Talarico, but making no mention of the nominee the group has been deeply opposed to,”The Texas Tribune reported:
“A state President Trump won by nearly 14 points isn’t going to elect James Talarico — a radical leftist who thinks God is nonbinary and that Texas should be a welcome mat for illegals,” NRSC regional press secretary Samantha Cantrell said. “He is the most dangerous flank of the far left. Texas isn’t swapping brisket for open borders.”
As The New American reported in May, Talarcio is obsessed with pushing homosexual and “transgender” propaganda on kids. So is his daffy church.
In 2021, he opposed a bill to keep boys who pretend to be girls out of women’s sports. And he used the Bible to justify his opposition, claiming that proponents used Scripture to “justify hurting children.”
“The first two lines in Genesis use two different Hebrew words to describe God,” Talarico said:
One is the masculine Hebrew noun for “divinity.” The second is the feminine Hebrew noun for “spirit.” God is both masculine and feminine and everything in between. God is non-binary.
In Genesis 1:26, God speaks of God’s self in the plural, saying, “Let us make human beings in our image, to be like us.” That’s the infinite multitude of God — the masculine, the feminine, and everything in between. Trans children are God’s children, made in God’s own image. There’s nothing wrong with them. Nothing at all. They are perfect. They are beautiful. And they are sacred. Bullying children is immoral. It’s a sin, a special kind of sin.
As for his church, the Daily Wire reviewed some of the material it peddles to kids.
The “children have access to a library stocked with ‘banned books’ that promote ideas rejected by most Christians, including books that contain descriptions of anal rape, incest, and oral sex,” a website revealed:
Books found in the St. Andrew’s catalog include the book “Gender Queer,” which includes illustrations of oral sex and masturbation, and the book “All Boys Aren’t Blue,” which discusses anal rape and incest.
“This Book Is Gay,” has a chapter on the “ins and outs of gay sex,” while the book “Becoming Nicole” tells the story of a gender-confused teen boy who identifies as a girl with the support of his family. In “The Courage to Be Queer,” the author claims that “God is queer.”
Other books in the church catalog include “Trans Kids, Our Kids: Stories and Resources from the Frontlines of the Movement for Transgender Youth,” “Called OUT: The Voices and Gifts of Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgendered Presbyterians,” and “Becoming Nicole: The Transformation of an American Family.”
Hiring Cornyn Staffers
Proving just what a chameleon Cornyn was, Talarico has hired one of his staffers.
Jacob Smith toiled for Cornyn as a policy advisor and deputy legislative director for five years, the NOTUS website reported. Now, he’s deputy policy chief for Talarico:
“I’ve worked for Republicans like Senator Cornyn my entire career, but this year I’m proud to be joining James Talarico’s campaign,” Smith confirmed in a statement through the Talarico campaign. “Instead of playing partisan politics, Talarico speaks to the needs of everyday people who day in and day out work too hard for too little. In the Senate, James will fight to lower costs for all 31 million Texans, whether they’re Republicans, Democrats, or independents, so that Texans of all ages have a fighting chance at the American Dream of starting a family, owning a home, and leaving a little behind for their children.”
Voters might assume from this fact that Smith isn’t too worried about Talarico’s weird obsession with trannies.
That aside, worse still for the GOP in general, Democrats are appealing to disgruntled Republican voters — likely those furious about Trump’s broken promises.
“With key races in red and purple states like Texas, Alaska, Georgia and Arizona, Democrats are turning to Republican validators to help them win statewide contests,” NOTUS reported.
Candidates are trotting out endorsements from prominent Republican officials, and even bringing some on to join their campaigns. Many of these contests are in states where the GOP has a significant registration advantage, or recent statewide contests have been extremely close, so nabbing some share of the vote from those who haven’t pulled the lever for a Democrat before is essential.
With support in the polls for Trump and Republicans at rock bottom, perhaps the only chance Paxton has is painting Talarico as a nut who wants boys in the restroom with girls.
But perhaps Texans worry more about the high prices of gas and food, brought to them by Trump’s unconstitutional war against Iran.
