Midterm Madness: Is the GOP’s Texas Graveyard Drawing Near?

Fourteen years ago, I wrote a piece titled “Does the GOP’s Demographic Death Spiral End in a Texas Graveyard?” Its theme was that demographic and cultural changes were making it increasingly difficult for Republicans to win national elections. And once these factors turned Texas “blue,” the GOP would be singin’ the blues. That is, adding the state’s 40 electoral votes to the Democrats’ already assured number would make electing a Republican president an unlikely proposition.

Is this Texas graveyard close to becoming a reality? Midterm polling numbers point to just that possibility.

Lamenting this today is commentator Joseph Ford Cotto. He writes that “Trump’s helped Texas, but it still seems to be heading left.” And what is the help Trump has delivered? According to Cotto:

Overtime pay is no longer taxed for about one in four Texas workers. Roughly four million seniors get a new deduction that shields Social Security from federal income tax. Average refunds hit $4,344, second highest in the nation. Rural health funding arrived at $281 million last year. Trump’s tax cuts protected 547,000 Texas jobs, $107 billion in state gross domestic product, and $51 billion in wages.

… The Mexican border is no longer a punchline. For 15 straight months through July, the Trump administration released zero illegal aliens at the southern border. July apprehensions sat 94 percent below the Biden-Harris monthly average. Refugee admissions dropped nearly 90 percent from 2024 levels. Congress put $46.5 billion toward finishing the border wall, and Texas is slated for $7.5 billion to recoup the costs it absorbed during the Democrat open-border years.

… Private capital followed America-first policy reforms.

Bristol Myers Squibb committed $2.3 billion in Houston. Toyota shifted Tacoma production to San Antonio with a $3.6 billion investment and 2,000 jobs instead of building in Mexico. SpaceX announced $16.8 billion for a semiconductor plant in Grimes County. Tesla added $3 billion at its Giga Texas plant. Vantage Data Centers pledged $25 billion in Shackelford County. MP Materials is putting more than $1.25 billion into rare-earth magnets in Northlake.

The list continues: Saronic in Brownsville, Micron in Sherman, FormFactor in Farmers Branch, USG in Orange, and a new oil refinery in Brownsville. That is the first one in nearly 50 years.

Violent crime fell 13 percent last year, including murder and rape. The 25 largest Texas jurisdictions all posted lower overall rates. Arlington homicides dropped 60 percent in the first half of 2026 versus the same period in 2025. Plano, Laredo, and Arlington landed in the national top 20 safest big cities.

Despite this, however, notes Cotto, Texas appears to be trending Democratic.

Midterm Morass

What many find disturbing isn’t just that certain Democrats are leading or are competitive in the polls. Rather, it’s that the Democrats in question are truly radical figures.

Just consider woke, out, and proud Senate candidate James Talarico. He has stated there are “six … biological sexes,” “God is nonbinary,” and women are “neighbors with uteruses.” He claimed Jesus was “a radical feminist.” He has asserted that white people are “immune” to the “virus of racism” but “spread” it wherever they go. He has defended having men masquerading as females in women’s sports. Yet he also has something else:

A lead over Republican candidate Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate race. (He’s currently ahead by 1.9 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average.)

Of course, Talarico has now become a “trans-ideologue”: He’s renouncing old positions and masquerading as a centrist for general-election appeal. It’s also true that Paxton has baggage. Yet Cotto finds it striking that this should, in Texas, outweigh the baggage of hard-left extremism.

The writer then mentions Texas’ “partisan lean,” but overstates the case. He claims it has gone from Trump’s winning 2024 margin, 14 points, to approximately even. In reality, Republicans still enjoy about a six-point edge.

Yet it’s not just Paxton facing problems. Longtime governor Greg Abbott is leading “progressive” opponent Gina Hinojosa in their race — but only by 4.7 points on average. Note here, too, that Hinojosa is a kindred spirit of Talarico’s. In fact, she does not even believe in our First Amendment. To wit: On the voter-guide site iSideWith, Hinojosa’s listed position is that hate speech should not enjoy constitutional protection. (Reality: The courts have said otherwise. There is, too, no category in American law such as “hate speech.”) Cotto asserts that this Abbott race would’ve been a landslide in any of his last three elections.

Perspective

Cotto then warns that the “crazies” — far-left-radicals — are out in full force. In contrast, conservatives aren’t nearly as motivated, a complacency that could be tragic. This is true, too. Yet perspective is necessary.

First, consider Senator Ted Cruz (R-Texas). He won reelection handily in 2024. Yet six years earlier, in 2018, his race was a too-close-for-comfort victory, 2.6 points, over Democrat Beto O’Rourke. There’s a lesson here.

Like Talarico, O’Rourke was considered a young “breath of fresh air” by many average voters. (Note: Most people aren’t politics wonks; many vote on superficial bases.) And as I discussed in “The Democrats’ Luciferian Beauty Play,” looks and charisma can carry the day. Do not underestimate this factor.

The Democrats sure haven’t. This is why many of their candidates — Talarico, Zohran Mamdani in New York City, erstwhile contender Graham Platner in Maine — look like they’re right out of central casting. Why, just consider Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). She was chosen from among 10,000 applicants to run in her district via what essentially was a pseudo-audition.

The Deeper Reasons

Yet even more significant than a pretty face are the deeper civilizational changes. Just consider demographics, mentioned earlier. As Brookings Democratic strategist Elaine Kamarck wrote in 2019, “Back in the 19th century a French sociologist first said ‘Demography is destiny.’” Apropos to this, she later stated, quoting her earlier work:

According to CNN exit polls, Latinos were 17 percent of the Texas vote in 2014, 24 percent of the state’s vote in 2016, and 26 percent in [2018].

The number of Lone Star State Hispanics eligible to vote has continued to grow, too. This is significant because Texas’ Hispanic vote has been roughly 55-65 percent Democratic in most cycles since the 2000s.

Something else that’s destiny, however, is moral change in the people. As to this, Anglo-Irish statesman Edmund Burke issued in 1791 a timeless but lamentably ignored warning. “It is ordained in the eternal constitution of things that men of intemperate minds cannot be free,” he wrote. “Their passions forge their fetters.”

Now, when observing our country today, do we see citizens of temperate minds?

Or are intemperate ones burgeoning?

If unsure, I recommend you read my February essay on low-virtue vs. higher-virtue people.

So two major factors moving Texas, and the nation generally, “left” are immigration and moral degradation. The bottom line is that we can’t be a people of darkness but enjoy a land of light. And if we will not walk into the light, we will stumble into Sodom.