Support for Republicans is gaining so rapidly that the Cook Political Report was forced to revise its forecast for the House of Representatives in November. A month ago, the non-partisan pollster predicted a GOP win with a gain of between 15 and 25 seats. On Thursday, its revised forecast is now showing a GOP gain of between 20 and 35 seats.
Said Cook: “The midterm outlook for House Democrats is so bleak that even members in districts … Biden won by 10 to 15 points are in danger of losing their seats.”
Democrat losses could be even worse, according to the pro-Democrat Washington Post. Wrote Henry Olsen:
[Democrats] hold 42 seats [where members won in districts Biden allegedly carried by eight percentage points or more]. Politico rates 13 of those 42 seats as “safe” for Democrats. If that doesn’t hold, the GOP could gain as many as 40 seats [in November].
Dave Wasserman, a Cook pollster, explained:
Given that President Biden’s job approval is underwater in dozens of districts he carried in 2020, any Democrat sitting in a single-digit Biden seat (or a Trump seat) is at severe risk, and even a few in seats Biden carried by 10 to 15 points could lose.
The GOP’s chances grew by another four seats after Florida revealed its revised redistricting, bringing to 20 Republican-leaning districts from its present 16 GOP-favored districts.
The situation is increasingly fluid. So far 30 Democrats have announced they are not running for reelection, and Biden’s polling numbers have moved from abysmal to disastrous. So even these predictions could be too conservative, come November.
Other pollsters give little hope for Democrats, including polls conducted by them. An internal poll conducted for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee showed that, on a generic basis, Republicans beat Democrats by eight percentage points, 47-39. And a poll conducted by the Republican super-PAC Congressional Leadership Fund revealed that 49 percent of voters in so-called battleground districts prefer having a “Republican in Congress to provide a check on Biden, rather than a Democrat to help pass Biden’s and Pelosi’s agenda.”
In the Senate, Cook gives Republicans a one-seat advantage, with senate races in three states — Arizona, Geogia, and Nevada — rated as a “toss-up.” RealClear Politics confirms the one-seat Republican advantage, but considers that eight seats are considered “toss-ups” in November, giving Republicans an opportunity to widen its predicted advantage.
Democrats had hoped to ameliorate some of the impending disaster through political manipulating of voting districts. But, as Wasserman noted:
The string of legal setbacks the Democrats have suffered since late February [in redistricting battles] has been staggering. When you put it all together, just about everything’s going right for Republicans.
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Two More Polls Reveal Democrats in Deeper Trouble Than They Thought
