The Emerson College poll results released on Friday were bad enough; those released by USA Today/Suffolk University on Monday were even worse. Both of them were disastrous among the very voters Biden claimed to have won in 2020 and those he must capture to win in 2024 if he decides to run for reelection.
By then there won’t be much of a Democrat Party to support him, if these polls, and others being tracked by Real Clear Politics (RCP), turn out to be correct.
Biden’s approval/disapproval rating at Emerson in September spelled trouble for him: Forty-seven of those polled expressed disapproval of his job performance, while 46 percent approved. Last week, his approval rating dropped by five full percentage points, to 41 percent, while 50 percent of those polled disapproved.
Among independents, the carnage was staggering. In September, 37 percent of them approved. Today, just 25 percent approve. His disapproval rating, not surprisingly, rose a full 10 percentage points, from 56 percent in September to 66 percent currently.
Even Emerson was astonished at the collapse in support for Biden:
The drop in approval is greatest among Black/African-American voters, moving from 72% approval in February to 52% approval in November.
Hispanic support dropped from 56% approval to 50% approval, [while] White voters’ [support] dropped from 43% to 38%.
Emerson noted that the dissatisfaction is translating into bad news for Democrats in the 2022 midterms. Just one year away from today (November 8, 2022),
Republicans have an edge there too. A strong plurality, at 49 percent, would vote for the Republican [congressional] candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat.
Forty nine percent of Independents would vote for the Republican.
And then came the USA Today/Suffolk University poll: “Joe Biden’s approval rating sinks to a new low, at 38%”, said the pollsters. Even worse, they said, “Biden’s support cratered among the Independent voters … this illuminates the size of the hole Democrats need to dig out of as they look forward to the elections in one year.”
Biden has failed to meet voters’ expectations, even among Democrats:
Nearly half of those surveyed, 46%, say Biden has done a worse job as president than they expected, including 16% of those who voted for him.
Independents, by 7-1, (44%-6%), say he’s done worse, not better, than they expected.
In addition, nearly two-thirds of those polled (64 percent) said they don’t want Biden to run for a second term, and that includes more than a quarter (28 percent) of Democrats.
The poll also showed Vice President Kamala Harris with even worse numbers: Her approval rating is 10 points below Biden’s, at 28 percent.
The pollsters asked their audience of 1,000 registered voters how they would vote if the election were held today. Forty-six percent of them said they’d vote for the Republican candidate over the Democrat rival (38 percent). This, wrote the pollsters, “bodes well for GOP hopes of gaining a majority in the House and the Senate.”
How well is the question. In general, the party controlling the White House loses some, often many, Congressional seats in the midterm elections. In 1974, for example, while Republican Gerald Ford was in office, Republicans lost 53 seats — 48 in the House and five in the Senate.
In 1994, with Democrat Bill Clinton in office, Democrats lost 60 seats — 52 in the House and eight in the Senate. In 2006, while Republican George W. Bush was in office, Republicans lost 36 seats — 30 in the House and six in the Senate.
In 2010, Democrats took an historic shellacking: They lost a total of 69 seats while Democrat Barack Obama was in office — 63 in the House and six in the Senate.
And, in 2018, while Republican Donald Trump was in office, Republicans lost 41 seats in the House, while gaining two in the Senate.
With Biden’s approval ratings tanking to historically low levels, the 2022 midterms could stagger the Democrats to the point where the party would take years to recover.
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