Just as Trump supporters were cheering the increasing likelihood that their hero would beat his likely Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, in the presidential election in November, along comes a massive survey that confirms their hopes.
But it dashes their hopes if someone — anyone — runs in Biden’s place. In that matchup — Trump vs. “a Democrat other than Joe Biden” — the generic Democrat beats Trump by six points.
The study by former deputy chairman of the U.K. Conservative Party, philanthropist, and political analyst Lord Ashcroft involved polling online more than 10,000 registered American voters and — to offset criticisms of online polling — included 12 in-person focus groups. Those focus groups included likely Republican primary voters who held a generally positive view of Donald Trump, likely Republican voters who held a generally negative view of Trump, and 2020 Biden voters who held a generally negative view of Joe Biden’s job performance over the last three years.
The results clearly favored Trump over Biden, regardless of the issue. Two-thirds think the United States is heading in the wrong direction under Biden, while just one in five think things are just fine.
On job performance, Lord Ashcroft’s survey confirmed others that showed Biden’s job approval rating in the tank, at 37 percent. This included a quarter of those who voted for Biden in 2020.
On his age, health, and mental acuity, the author noted:
Whatever their voting backgrounds, people in all our groups worried about Biden’s age and health and many felt he could hardly do the job now, let along in four years’ time.
The author explored reasons behind Trump’s continued popularity:
We asked our focus groups what they thought lay behind the continuing appeal of Donald Trump, and why he looked likely to secure the 2024 Republican nomination.
The consistent answer was that while they might not always like his behaviour, they believed he would act on the issues they cared about and had the force of personality to get things done.
Many added that this was demonstrated by his record in office: they cited a stronger economy, action on immigration and the border, efforts to even the terms of trade with China, the appointment of conservative judges to the Supreme Court, and a robust international stance resulting in outcomes like the Abraham Accords.
They also liked that he was not a conventional politician and would not be swayed by corporations and political donors….
Those inclined to support Trump expected that in a second term he would close the border, finish the wall, strengthen the economy, make the US more independent in terms of energy and manufacturing and extricate America from foreign wars.
When asked about whether Trump’s legal troubles would impact the November election, a quarter said they would, a quarter said they wouldn’t, and a third said they are actually helping him get elected:
A number of Trump-supporting participants accepted that there could be some substance to the legal cases against him, just as some opponents accepted that the motivation to bring charges against him was probably partly political.
A few previous Trump voters said they would find it difficult to vote for him if he were convicted by a jury, but most said they would still consider doing so, since the issues at stake were too important and the charges had in their view only been brought for political reasons.
When asked about the validity of the 2020 elections, many Trump supporters in the focus groups expressed their doubts:
Many Trump supporters were inclined to believe the 2020 election had, to a greater or lesser degree, been rigged in favour of Joe Biden and the Democrats.
They often linked the issue to what they saw as other instances in which government and media institutions had sought to work against Trump, such as the Russia-gate investigations, the Hunter Biden laptop story, the multiple indictments, attempts to have him removed from the ballot in Colorado and Maine, and MSNBC’s refusal to cover Trump speeches.
And, when asked whom they think the American people will put into office in January 2025, 38 percent said Trump while 28 percent said Biden.
But, when posed with any “Democrat other than Joe Biden” the results shifted in Biden’s favor by six percentage points.
This raises a number of questions. First, a “generic” Democrat is vastly different from any of the usual suspects the media is increasingly mentioning as possible replacements: Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama, and Gavin Newsom. Each of them carries heavy baggage that would factor greatly in any face-to-face confrontation with The Don.
Second, Biden might not be gotten rid of so easily without exposing the managers and manipulators pulling his strings. The American public is awakening to the takeover of those manipulators and their cohorts in the mainstream media, and removal of Biden in favor of another far-left candidate would be difficult to hide from them.
Thirdly, Lord Ashcroft’s survey suffers from the simple fact that this is February, and the election is in November. It’s like trying to hit a target with an arrow shot from 10 miles away.
