Even Biden’s staunchest cheerleaders are having second guesses about his chances.
In a surprising blow to Joe Biden’s candidacy, James Carville, the “Ragin’ Cajun” political strategist who has become a fixture in Establishment Democratic political consulting and commentary, said in a recent interview with The Washington Post that it is “ludicrous” to skirt the issue of Biden’s viability for a second term in office.
Carville gained national recognition for working as lead strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 campaign, and was on the teams for John Kerry’s 2004 candidacy and Hillary Clinton’s 2008 bid.
Although Carville in 2020 worked on the Democratic primary campaign of Colorado Senator Michael Bennet, he voiced support for Biden when it became a two-man race between him and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, arguing that Biden was the candidate who, in contrast to Sanders’ democratic socialism, had the appeal to pull moderate voters and beat Donald Trump in the general election.
But now, Carville is blunt in his opinion that Biden’s reelection is not a foregone conclusion.
“The idea that this should not be aired out and should be discussed in hushed tones is ludicrous,” Carville said of Biden. “This needs to be discussed.”
Back in September, Carville told The New York Times that it is apparent Democratic voters want someone other than Biden as their candidate.
“The voters don’t want this, and that’s in poll after poll after poll,” Carville told the outlet. “You can’t look at what you look at and not feel some apprehension here.” He expressed his concern that this lack of enthusiasm among the base could lead to lower turnout.
According to a poll from CNN, 49 percent of respondents said Biden’s “age” is the biggest worry they have about him. “Health,” “mental sharpness,” and ability to perform the job all got seven percent apiece.
“Well, I guess, to say the least, the polls were not great,” said Carville regarding those numbers. “And it tells us that voters are expressing some apprehension here. It’s pretty clear. There’s not much else you can say when you look at them.”
Currently, polling has Biden and Trump neck-and-neck.
Although enthusiasm for Biden is down, no serious challenge has arisen from within the Democratic Party. The only other candidate in the primary race is Marianne Williamson, the self-help guru currently polling between three and 14 percent. Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. recently dropped out of the Democratic primary to instead run as an Independent.
It is expected that Representative Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) will announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on Friday, making the case that Biden’s poll numbers are low. But Rebecca Pearcey, who served as political director and senior advisor to Senator Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign, isn’t convinced Phillips’ campaign will make a difference, telling Fox News, “We all know how old Biden is. I don’t think a 2.5-term congressman who is probably not actually known outside his district is the challenge that Biden would need in order to close this nomination.”
Trump has one advantage in that he appears to have a more loyal voting base than Biden does. A poll from NBC News last month found that only 38 percent of those who say they are voting for Biden are doing so because of him specifically; rather 58 percent said they were voting more against Trump than for Biden.
Meanwhile, 56 percent of Trump voters said they are specifically voting for Trump, with only 36 percent voting against Biden.
The jury remains out on whether Kennedy’s switch to Independent will be more harmful to Biden or Trump. There’s an argument to be made that, ideologically, Kennedy could pull away more would-be Trump voters due to his medical-freedom stance and vaccine skepticism, which has become much more of a Republican than a Democrat issue in recent years, especially since Covid.
Yet a poll released by the Republican firm Echelon Insights suggests that Kennedy would pull away more voters from Biden. Per its results, 16 percent of those who voted for Biden in 2020 are going for Kennedy, versus 10 percent of 2020 Trump voters. In total, Kennedy was supported by 13 percent of Democratic respondents, nine percent of Republicans, and 23 percent of Independents.
Another factor in the general election will be Cornel West — the left-wing activist and philosopher known for his unique blend of democratic socialism, black-church Christianity, and race theory — who recently put an abrupt end to his relationship with the Green Party in favor of an independent presidential bid.
West’s hard-hitting socialism and charisma have made him popular among the far Left, meaning he could potentially peel away Sanders-type voters from Biden. This could lead to a situation as in 2016, when Jill Stein’s Green Party advocacy was seen as siphoning votes away from Hillary Clinton, thus enabling the election of Donald Trump.
Despite these factors, it remains clear the Democratic establishment is dead-set on Biden and isn’t likely to open the doorway to any other primary contender receiving a viable platform.
