The political polls just aren’t going Joe Biden’s way.
For the third time, a poll of Virginia voters shows GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump tied with President Joe Biden.
Two previous polls showed the same thing for the Old Dominion, which turned blue in 2008 with the election of President Barack Hussein Obama.
Meanwhile, those who answered pollsters for another survey said Biden is quite likely to forget where he is, and might meander off the wrong side of the stage in a fugue state.
More bad news for Biden: He still trails Trump in all seven battleground state polls, the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average of polls shows. Trump’s recent felony convictions have not affected his support nationwide, and he’s still ahead of Biden by almost one point, the RCP average shows.
Tied in Virginia
The latest survey from the co/efficient polling firm, which questioned 861 voters, shows Biden and Trump tied at 41 percent and rogue Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 7 percent. Twelve percent of those polled are undecided.
But the poll’s other findings should alarm Biden and his handlers:
“The overwhelming majority of voters in Virginia were not swayed one way or the other because of Trump’s conviction,” the pollsters say:
- However, in a state that is now clearly competitive, the impact of this conviction could make the difference. Voters are three times more likely to move to Trump than to Biden.
- 75% of voters that have changed their mind post conviction switched to Trump and only 25% switched to Biden.
The Biden-Democrat claim that Americans shouldn’t vote for a “convicted felon” won’t likely sway many voters.
Forty-nine percent of those polled think Trump was targeted “unfairly or purely for political reasons,” and just 43 percent believe the Democratic prosecutors’ Ahab-like pursuit of Trump is legitimate.
And that survey isn’t the first report that Virginia, which last voted for a Republican in 2004, is in play.
In early June, a Fox News poll showed Trump and Biden tied at 48 percent, and in late May, a Roanoke College poll had Trump and Biden tied at 42 percent in a head-to-head match.
“Respondents are more likely to view the Trump years as mostly good for the country (44% mostly good; 33% mostly bad),” a college news release said, “and they see the Biden years more negatively (25% mostly good; 47% mostly bad).”
Continued the release:
“These results suggest that Virginia could be ‘in play’ in November,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for IPOR [Institute for Policy and Opinion Research] and Professor Emeritus of Political Science at Roanoke College, “but five months is an eternity in politics. This tie or two-point lead seems dramatic, but they are within the margin of error of the results of the February 2024 and November 2023 Roanoke College Polls. Still, it seems that Trump is narrowing Biden’s lead, which has all but disappeared.” …
“While Biden and Trump are viewed negatively about equally, it is not good news for Biden that Trump’s years as president are seen more positively and that the economy (which other polls show as a weakness for Biden) is by far the most important issue.”
Will He Wander Off?
A J.L. Partners poll delivered more bad news for Biden. That survey found that 50 percent of those polled think Trump will win the June 27 debate between the two, while just 30 percent believe Biden will prevail.
Breaking that figure down, as expected, overwhelming majorities of Republicans and Democrats think their man will win. But 47 percent of Independents think Trump will win.
Among all voters, 80 percent expect Trump to interrupt Biden, while 70 percent expect Biden to “mess up his words.” Sixty-one percent expect Trump to “tell a rambling story” and 54 percent expect leftist moderators to cut off his mic.
Then consider these findings:
- 49 percent expect Biden to forget where he is;
- 41 percent expect him to walk off the wrong side of the stage; and
- 40 percent expect him to have problems standing up.
Those findings suggest that Americans know Biden is declining mentally and physically, as his performance at the G7 summit in Italy has shown.
RCP Averages
As if that news isn’t bad enough, the RCP average shows that Trump’s conviction for paying “hush money” to porn queen Stormy Daniels hasn’t affected his standing with voters.
The average of election polls has Trump ahead of Biden by 0.8 points, 45.4-44.6. Trump has prevailed in 10 of the last 20 polls, and tied Biden four times.
As he has been for weeks, Biden’s in serious trouble in the key battleground states that could determine the winner. Trump leads by these margins:
- Arizona: 4.6
- Georgia: 4.8
- Michigan: 0.3
- Nevada: 5.3
- North Carolina: 5.3
- Pennsylvania: 2.3
- Wisconsin: 0.1
Those numbers can change, of course. But with the election just five months away, and Biden increasingly showing his mental and physical infirmities, more than a few voters who don’t view themselves as partisans might think they have no choice but Trump.
H/T: Ace of Spades, New York Post, Newsweek
