CNN political analyst Harry Enten has called the 2022 midterms for Republicans. After reviewing the available polls and recent victories in state races in November, Enten said that “pretty much every single indicator that pointed to a Democratic wave in the 2018 midterms now points to a Republican one in the 2022 midterms.”
And that “Democratic wave” petered out, giving the Democrats razor-thin majorities in the House and an even split in the Senate. Only Vice President Harris’ tie-breaking votes have kept alive the Biden agenda to spend the U.S. into bankruptcy and tyranny.
According to the latest CNBC All-America Survey, Republicans now have a historic 10-point advantage over Democrats in its generic poll. Said Jay Campbell, the Democratic pollster behind CNBC’s poll: “If the election were held tomorrow, it would be an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats.”
Enten agrees:
There have only been two midterm cycles since 1938 when Republicans had any lead on this measure at this point….
[In] 2010 … they were up by two points on the generic ballot at this point in time [and] went on to gain 63 seats [in the House].
There are three primary indicators that Enten uses to gauge the future: presidential approval, special elections, and retirements from the House. On each, the numbers bode ill for the Democrats. On Biden’s approval rating, Enten said that Biden’s “is the second worst approval rating for an elected president at this point in their first term.”
As for special elections, Virginia stands out among the 60 such races that were decided in November. While Republican candidates on those races averaged five points better than the margin for the presidential race in 2020, in Virginia “they swept the top of the ticket (governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general) and gained control of the House of Delegates,” wrote Enten.
Retirements of nearly 20 Democrats before the next election also bodes ill for the party. As Enten said, “retirements are not a perfect indicator of future midterm outcomes, but they’re a sign.” He added:
Elected officials are looking at the same statistics [that] we are. They aren’t likely to retire en masse unless they sense they’re going to lose.
Enten concluded:
The opposition party has picked up 5 or more seats in 34 or 38 midterms since 1870. Not a lot so far suggests that the 2022 midterms will be any different.
This is tantamount to surrender before the game is over. When the lead cheerleader is forced to admit that his team has lost, his team has lost.
Looking beyond the taking back of control of Congress by Republicans next November, two questions must be answered: What is the margin, and how many of the new faces will take seriously their oaths of office to uphold and defend the Constitution?
Would it be too generous to suggest that Republicans might duplicate their success in 2010, and take control of the House with a gain of 63 seats? Would it be too generous to suggest that half of those seats will be occupied by true constitutionalists who see the damage being done to the Republic by the Democrats and commit to beginning the long road to restoration?
Would that be enough to overcome the inevitable RINOs who sneak in by speaking like constitutionalists but committing treachery to their oaths by going along with the Republican House leadership?
That question can only be answered at the grass-roots level, where informed citizens select true Americanists to represent them in Congress. That’s where the battle for freedom and restoration will be decided.
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