The latest polling by Quinnipiac University published last Thursday revealed that among the 1,500 likely voters interviewed, just 35 percent approve of Joe Biden’s job performance, while 54 percent disapprove. This generated a response from the White House — Biden’s deputy chief of staff Jen O’Malley Dillon said the poll “is very likely an outlier … [that] is drastically different from other recent polls.”
A closer look at those “recent polls” reveals that Dillon’s response is more wishful thinking than reality. Writers at the Biden-friendly news site Axios had a hard time painting the poll results as anything less than a continuation of the rolling political disenchantment engulfing the Biden administration. In its article titled “Biden’s epic failures,” Axios noted: “By almost every measure [Biden has] bombed big time on the things that matter most.… [He] has never been less popular nationally.”
Averaging the latest seven polls tracked by RealClearPolitics reveals that less than 42 percent of those polled approve of Biden’s performance, while more than 52 percent disapprove. Rasmussen Reports joins Quinnipiac as another “outlier” (from the White House perspective): 60 percent disapprove, with just 38 percent approving Biden’s performance.
Axios lamented that Biden has no one to blame but himself (and his minders):
The Supreme Court yesterday blocked Biden’s vaccine-or-test mandate for large employers.
The Afghanistan pullout played out about as poorly as it could have.
Russia is messing with him: Biden’s warnings haven’t deterred Vladimir Putin from continuing to build toward a Ukraine invasion.
Inflation is soaring: It’s the worst in 39 years.
Empty grocery shelves get network-news coverage. It’s partly the weather, partly COVID, partly the supply chain — but makes a handy visual shorthand for national pessimism.
Axios failed to mention the flood of illegals pouring into the United States over its southern border, or the utter lack of confidence Americans have in Vice President Kamala Harris.
It’s too soon for the White House to respond to a poll done by one of its own, CBS/YouGov. Writers at CBS had as much trouble as those at Axios in trying to put lipstick on this pig:
The story of President Biden’s first year is a simple one: Americans feel worse about the pandemic and [the] economy than they did earlier in his term, and his ratings have suffered for it.…
The story of his first year evokes emotions too: although most like Mr. Biden personally, words like “frustrated” and “disappointed” top people’s descriptions of things, along with the feeling that he’s “distracted” and not focusing on what they care about.
The CBS/YouGov poll revealed that “only 26% of Americans think things in the country are going well … [Biden’s] rating for handling the economy today is a mere 38% … his job rating on handling COVID is down to the lowest point in his presidency … and [while just] 25% say he’s making the economy better … half say [he’s] making it worse.”
Loss of support from Independents and young voters is cataclysmic, report the CBS/YouGov pollsters: “Among independents who voted for him [in 2020], approval has decreased by a whopping 31 points.” And among voters under age 30 who voted for Biden in 2020, “his approval rating … has dropped from 70% in February to just 42% now — double the size of the decline among other age groups.”
How is this precipitous decline likely to impact the midterm elections? Sean Trende, a senior elections analyst for RealClearPolitics, developed an election projection model in 2014 with remarkable results. Based on three factors, his model predicted outcomes within a single seat in each of the four elections since then.
Trende says that “the single most determinative factor in midterm outcomes is the president’s job approval [rating].… At 42% [approval rating for Biden, my] model envisions virtually no chance for Democrats to hold the Senate and predicts a loss of four seats as the most likely outcome.”
Regarding the House, other commentators and modelers are suggesting a blowout loss for Democrats, forecasting anywhere from 20 to 60 seats moving from Democrats to Republicans in November.
The latest Quinnipiac poll is not, as the White House wishes, an “outlier,” but a reflection of the increasing disenchantment Americans are suffering with the present resident of the Oval Office. He is the true outlier, and the midterms appear likely to rectify the error, in spades.
