President Trump’s “One Big, Beautiful Bill” returned to the House of Representatives on Tuesday a few pages lighter and more expensive after Vice President J.D. Vance cast the tie-breaking vote to squeeze it out of the Senate.
Vance celebrated the moment with an X post, saying, “Massive tax cuts, especially no tax on tips and overtime. And most importantly, big money for border security. This is a big win for the American people.”
The final vote happened after one of the longest voting sessions in American history, which started at 9:00 a.m. Monday and went into the night. Senators cast more than 45 votes during that “vote-a-rama.”
President Trump wants the bill out of the House and on his desk ready to sign by Friday, July 4. But the proposal is certain to face major hurdles.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) barely passed the House May 22, on a 215-214-1 vote. And now it’s even more expensive, and thanks to interference from Senate Parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, the Senate got rid of the provision banning illegals from getting Medicaid perks.
House Opposition
Texas Republican Chip Roy voted “present” when the bill was last in the House. He recently called in to media commentator Glenn Beck’s show, where he indicated he is even more disappointed with the new version:
If Roy joins Republicans Thomas Massie of Kentucky and Warren Davidson of Ohio, both of whom voted “nay” last time (and are likely to do so again), but everyone else falls in line, the bill still passes. But Republican spending hawks Ralph Norman of South Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, and Josh Brecheen Oklahoma could throw a monkey wrench on Trump’s July 4 parade if they hold onto their convictions.
All Senate Democrats voted against passing the OBBBA, with three Republicans joining them. The dissenting Republicans were Rand Paul of Kentucky, Thom Tillis of North Carolina, and Susan Collins of Maine. The latter two opposed various changes to Medicaid, while Paul voted against it because of its sticker price.
Big Budget
The bill is projected to add trillions of dollars to the debt. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released on June 27 an updated cost estimate following Senate changes. According to the CBO, the bill could add between $3.5 and $4.2 trillion to the national debt in just under a decade. The CBO’s projection increased by about $1 trillion after the Senate made changes.
Senator Paul, among the most consistent fiscal hawks, has dubbed the OBBBA the “big not-so-beautiful bill.” He said that even according to the most generous math, the bill will balloon the deficit. As of now, the annual deficit is a little under $2 trillion. If the OBBBA passes in its current form, Paul announced on the Senate floor, the deficit will rise by hundreds of billions of dollars. He said, “Even using the formulas that the supporters of the bill like, the deficit will grow by $270 billion next year. That’s just not good if you profess to be fiscally conservative.” Paul added that the deficit will grow due to a combination of tax cuts and about $500 billion in additional spending on military upgrades, border and immigration enforcement, and agricultural subsidies.
Paul went on to say that to avoid adding onto the deficit, the OBBBA needs spending cuts to counter the new spending. But there’s no such plan, adding:
“Unfortunately, the spending cuts are backloaded to the final five years of the ten-year window when several tax cuts expire and the spending increases or finish. In addition, elections occur every two years and can easily wipe out any perceived savings that might occur in the later years.”
Paul also opposes the OBBBA for increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion.
Trump’s Take
But the Trump administration is singing a different song. Director of the Office of Management and Budget Russell Vought has claimed the bill yields $1.6 trillion in mandatory savings. The White House released an analysis by the Council of Economic Advisors in June. Its projections seem largely predicated on the prospect of economic growth. It assumes the policies within the bill will turbocharge the economy. The White House-endorsed analysis says the OBBBA will accomplish the following:
- Debt-to-GDP falls to 94% by 2034 under the Trump plan — compared to 117% under Biden’s failed path.
- Total deficit in 2034 is cut nearly in half — 3.2% of GDP under Trump vs. 6.2% under current law — saving the country $1.1 trillion in that year alone.
- Primary deficits flip to surpluses by 2034 under President Trump’s economic agenda with the OBBB.
- An accurate budget score for the OBBB, inclusive of economic growth unleashed by President Trump’s policies, is deficit reduction of $755 billion relative to the CBO’s tax hike baseline and deficit reduction of $4.5 trillion relative to the current policy baseline.
Musk Goes Nuclear
One person who is not buying what the White House is selling is the world’s richest man and the former unofficial head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Elon Musk’s fallout with the president began after the tech tycoon came out in opposition to the bill publicly back in May. He called the bill an “abomination.” But after a blitz of attacks against the president in a matter of hours, Musk dialed back his criticism and laid low for a few weeks.
But on Monday, Musk began broadcasting his loathing for the proposal again. He posted on X Monday afternoon:
A couple of hours later, Musk launched another torpedo. He implied that he will spearhead the forming of a third party “if this insane bill passes.”
But that’s not all. Musk appears ready to put his money where his mouth is. He recently publicly pledged to support one of Trump’s newest Congressional nemesis, Thomas Massie.
Massie Attacked
As we reported in The New American Monday, a pro-trump super PAC has put a bullseye on Massie, part of a Trump-endorsed effort to oust him from Congress come next year over his repeated defections. Massie told TNA Trump’s attacks on him have already begun backfiring. He said his campaign has seen a massive uptick in donations as a result. That was before Musk’s pledge.
On Tuesday, the congressman from Kentucky woke up to more good news. He announced on the social media platform X:
Only six months in, the rebooted Trump era is already shaping up to be among the most dramatic in U.S. history. Who knows, perhaps Americans will even get a third party out of it?
