Nearly two-thirds of Democrats believe President Joe Biden should withdraw from the 2024 presidential race and allow another candidate to run, according to a new AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. This sentiment comes in the wake of high-profile Democratic donors and politicians calling on Biden to drop out.
AP-NORC summarized the findings of the poll, conducted shortly after the debate between Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump:
As President Biden continues to face the fallout from his debate performance, 7 in 10 adults, including 65% of Democrats, say he should withdraw and allow his party to select a different nominee. There are growing misgivings about Biden’s mental capability to be an effective president, and few adults think he can win in November.
The survey conducted July 11-15 found that only about 30 percent of Democrats are extremely or very confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve as president, a drop from 40 percent in February. These results highlight the significant challenges the 81-year-old president faces as he attempts to regain support within his party and reassure Democrats that he is the best candidate to defeat Trump.
Most Democrats Want Biden to Withdraw
The poll notes an alarming trend among everyday Democrats who are seeking alternatives to Biden. In contrast, the Republican camp overwhelmingly supports Donald Trump.
Overall, 57% of adults say Trump should withdraw from the race and allow his party to name a replacement. But Trump is maintaining support from his party, with 73% of Republicans saying he should stay in the race.
Biden is facing more resistance from his party, with only 35% of Democrats saying he should stay in the race.
The poll also showed that younger Democrats are especially likely to want Biden to withdraw. Three-quarters of those under 45 expressed this desire, as compared to about six in 10 older Democrats.
Biden’s support remains relatively strong among black Democrats, with roughly half expressing that he should continue his campaign. In contrast, only about 30 percent of white and Hispanic Democrats share this view. Overall, seven in 10 Americans believe Biden should step aside. Democrats are slightly less likely than Republicans and independents to hold this opinion.
In the broader context, the poll was conducted mostly before the recent assassination attempt on Trump at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, meaning it could not reveal any changes in public opinion following the incident. The exact magnitude of the event’s impact on public sentiment is yet to be measured. However, pollsters found no immediate improvement in Biden’s prospects during initial interviews completed after the shooting.
High-profile Democrats began this week to voice their concerns more openly over Biden’s impact on the party’s political outlook. In addition to Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), these include Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), both of whom reportedly continue to “increase pressure on Biden to step aside.”
Kamala Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris has also been under increased scrutiny as discussions about Biden’s potential withdrawal continue. The poll found her overall favorability rating to be 43 percent, which is 5 points greater than Biden’s. A slightly lower share of Americans hold an unfavorable opinion of her compared to both Trump and Biden. Among Democrats, her support currently stands at 74 percent.
An Economist/YouGov survey released on Thursday showed that 79 percent of Democrats would support Harris as the party’s nominee if Biden were to step aside.
At the same time, the chances of her beating Trump are anything but certain, according to the Democrats:
But there’s no consensus among Democrats that Harris would be a better nominee than Biden: 28% say Harris would be more likely than Biden to beat Trump while 24% say she’d be less likely to win and 32% they’d have about equal chances against Trump.
Support for Harris is notably high among Democrats who believe a change in the ticket is necessary.
The Swing States
Another recent poll shows Trump currently leading Biden both nationally and in seven key battleground states, further reflecting Biden’s tanking support among voters.
According to the Emerson College poll, which was sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation and released on Thursday, 46 percent of registered voters support Trump, while 42 percent back Biden, with 12 percent remaining undecided. Notably, the pollster observed that Biden’s support has decreased by 2 points since earlier this month, whereas Trump’s support has remained unchanged.
Noted Spencer Kimball, director of Emerson College Polling:
Recent polling shows Biden losing support more significantly than Trump gaining it since the attempted assassination. This raises questions about whether Biden’s decline is still influenced by the debate or if Trump has reached his support ceiling.
Biden Hopeful
Despite the challenges, Biden remains steadfast in his commitment to the race and hopeful about his chances of reelection.
He stated in a Tuesday interview with BET News that many voters have not yet focused on the election and that it is still early in the campaign. “The point is, we’re just getting down to game-time right now,” he said, insisting that only a medical condition would cause him to reconsider his candidacy.
The next day, Biden tested positive for Covid and had to cancel his speech at a major Hispanic event in Las Vegas, having to swiftly relocate to his home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware.
As the election season progresses, Biden’s ability to regain control of his campaign and convince voters of his viability will be crucial. The coming months will determine whether he can overcome the growing doubts within his party and secure a strong path forward in the 2024 presidential race.
