With Russia’s war in Ukraine leading in the news cycles and President Zelensky asking the United States to intervene, Americans face the very real prospect that either Congress, the Biden administration, or both will entangle the United States in a war with Russia to one degree or another. And a recent poll shows that Americans are divided in their opinions about that prospect.
The poll — conducted by Quinnipiac University between March 10 and March 14 — predates Zelensky’s videoconference address to Congress. Based on responses from nearly 2,000 U.S. adults, the poll found that a clear majority of Americans approve of NATO’s decision not to enforce a no-fly zone. But beyond that, most favor the United States taking some type of action to “help Ukraine” if it can be done “without risking a direct war between the U.S. and Russia.”
As we reported previously, Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) — who serves as vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee — explained that a no-fly zone is not just a rule that nations automatically follow. That rule has to be enforced and doing so would mean “flying AWACs 24 hours a day” and “the willingness to shoot down and engage Russian airplanes in the sky” as well as being “willing to knock out the anti-aircraft systems that the Russians have deployed — and not just in Ukraine, but in Russia and also in Belarus.” Rubio — who is normally a war hawk — added that because those actions are necessary to enforcing a no-fly zone, doing so would mean “starting WWIII.”
As the Quinnipiac poll found, “Americans approve 54-32 percent of NATO’s decision not to enforce a no-fly zone.”
In a rare episode of agreement between Republicans and Democrats, the poll found that 58 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of Republicans support NATO’s decision on the no-fly zone. And 57 percent of Independents share that same opinion.
And that bipartisanship carries over into the hallowed halls of Congress, as well. As Daily Wire reports, that bipartisanship runs so deep and so wide that it even brings agreement between the likes of Senator Rubio and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who have both been openly against a no-fly zone:
But members of Congress from both parties have warned that enforcing a no-fly zone would lead to war with Russia. Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio recently told ABC’s George Stephanopoulos that a no-fly zone would mean flying planes fitted with Airborne Early Warning and Control systems (AEWCs or AWACs) over Ukraine, as well as engaging Russian aircraft and attacking Russian anti-aircraft positions, not just in Ukraine, but in Russia itself, which would inevitably result in war breaking out. “So basically a no-fly zone — if people understood what it means, it means World War III,” Rubio said.
Democratic New York Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez issued the same stark warning in an Instagram story Wednesday. “Declaring a no-fly zone is essentially tantamount to a declaration of war,” AOC said. “So if you’re not comfortable with the United States declaring war against Russia, you’re probably not comfortable with a no-fly zone.”
So, it may be safe to say that the United States will at least avoid being immediately entangled in the war in Ukraine at least to the degree of enforcing a no-fly zone. But — and this is a big but — that is not the entire story. As mentioned above, the Quinnipiac poll found that a vast majority of Americans (75 percent) say the United States should do “whatever it can to help Ukraine” so long as it means avoiding war. And a not-insubstantial 17 percent said “the U.S. should do whatever it can to help Ukraine, even if it means risking a direct war between the U.S. and Russia.” Combined, this means that 92 percent agree that the United States should play some role in the war in Ukraine.
And that is the rub. Because while the super-majority would have the United States avoid war while helping Ukraine, many (if not most) may not understand that “helping Ukraine” may take the form of things that will lead to war with Russia — even if the United States initially declines to enforce a no-fly zone.
For instance, after this poll was conducted, Zelensky addressed Congress via a video conference and asked for either a no-fly zone, or alternatively, for the United States to provide Ukraine with fighter jets and anti-aircraft weapons. As this writer wrote about that:
Zelensky started the bidding at a no-fly zone (which he knew would be rejected) and then lowered the bid to America providing jets and missiles.
And:
In the address, Zelensky — who appeared on screen in a military-style t-shirt — went all out in an effort to appeal to the emotions of Americans, invoking memories of Pearl Harbor, Martin Luther King’s “I Have a Dream” speech, and 9/11. And while he was addressing Congress in his video conference, he widened the scope to include President Biden, saying, “I’m addressing the President Biden,” Zelensky said. “You, the leader of your nation, I wish you to be the leader of the world.”
But the true intended audience appears to be the American people, millions of whom have already seen his address via YouTube and other platforms.
If the American people can be emotionally manipulated into wading into war with Russia, the end result would be the same as diving into war with Russia. As this writer said in that previous article:
And it is that intended audience that Zelensky appears to hope to move toward more aggressive measures by the United States. Those measures could include American fighter jets enforcing a no-fly zone over Ukraine, though many in Congress have said that is a no-go, since it would mean opening America up to outright war with Russia. As a “compromise,” Zelenskyy asked for the United States to provide Ukraine with fighter jets and anti-aircraft weapons.
This seems a bit like a staged scene for the American people to witness and move toward a willingness to intervene by wading back into the “Cold War” days of the past. In fact, this exact issue was addressed by Senator Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) earlier this month when he appeared on ABC’s This Week with host George Stephanopoulos.
In his appearance on This Week Rubio stood firm against a no-fly zone (as noted above), but said he would support providing Ukraine with fighter jets. So, while Rubio is opposed to diving head-first into WWIII, he favors dipping his foot in the pool and wading in gradually.
And then, like a well-scripted play, Zelensky, a former actor and comedian, enters the stage and delivers his lines on cue, asking for exactly what Rubio said he would favor and then some. Because Zelensky also asked for anti-aircraft weapons.
And with 75 percent of Americans saying “the U.S. should do whatever it can to help Ukraine” while avoiding war and another 17 percent saying “the U.S. should do whatever it can to help Ukraine, even if it means risking a direct war between the U.S. and Russia” before Zelensky made his impassioned plea for help, there is the very real likelihood that America may just wade in by providing Ukraine with jets and missiles. But that is not altogether sure to avoid open war.
After all, does anyone really think that Russia will not see the United States supplying fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine as an act of war? Or that American entanglement and involvement in this war will stop there?
For those who may lean toward “helping Ukraine,” this writer offers this last piece of evidence that Americans are being emotionally manipulated into war: The Quinnipiac poll also found that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has replaced Covid as the most concerning thing on Americans’ minds:
When asked what concerns them more: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or COVID-19, 79 percent of Americans say the invasion of Ukraine, while 13 percent say COVID-19.
With Covid having run its course, Americans should ask ourselves if it isn’t awfully convenient that the war in Ukraine came along just when it did.
