Josh Mendelsohn, CEO of the Michael Bloomberg-funded data firm Hawkfish, was interviewed Monday on HBO by Margaret Talev of Axios. According to his company’s number-crunching, Trump will win in a landslide on election night. But that landslide is a “Red Mirage,” and Trump’s lead will vanish as the mail-in ballots are counted over the next several days, giving the victory to Biden.
Mendelsohn’s reason for the interview was to inform the listener that “one of the things we [Hawkfish] believe is that facts matter. It’s not about disinformation, misinformation, or using fear as a tactic; there are objective truths in this world today.” “Facts” and “truths” as defined by a DNC loyalist, anyway.
According to Mendelsohn, an unprecedented 40 percent of American registered voters will vote by mail (VBM) this election, with 69 percent of them being Democrats and 19 percent being Republicans. This breakdown will mean that the majority of the votes counted on election day will be Republican, giving Trump an early, and, potentially, a landslide victory. But as the mail-in ballots come in, that lead will “burn away” and give Biden the win in a landslide.
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According to one of Hawkfish’s computer-modeling scenarios, because the mail-in ballot count will only be at 15 percent the day of the election, Trump’s projected lead could be 408-130 Electoral College votes on election night. As the mail-in ballot-counting continues, the numbers will change as more Democrat votes come in, pushing Biden into the lead and ultimately a win with 334-204 Electoral votes.
One exchange during the interview:
Mendelsohn: “We would have the results saying one thing on Nov. 3 that it will not be saying on Nov. 10.”
Talev: “Why would it matter if the results seem to show one thing on one night and change later on?”
Mendelsohn: “That is the America we all wished we lived in, but, we have the Trump team, who are quite intelligent and sees what’s coming, messaging through Tweets, rallies and speeches, this notion of any change from the results on election night, means fraud has entered into the equation.”
Talev: “What impact could that have, could it change the outcome?”
Mendelsohn: “You’re then setting up the American presidency for still more failure because even if you ultimately get Joe Biden as US President, now you have taken what would be considered a mandate to govern, to go in and clean things up, and instead, you find yourself in this deeply polarized situation where the American electorate, a portion of it, feels an injustice has occurred.”
Mendelsohn then advised people to get their votes in early by any method, so the “Red Mirage” will be burned away, and the “American will is clearly demonstrated.”
The Axios article the interview covers then gives the ominous warnings that “Hawkfish is not just trying to educate the public about the possibility that Trump could prematurely declare victory, or try to delegitimize a Biden victory if it took days or weeks to determine.” It further cautions, “Imagine America, with its polarization and misinformation, if the vote tally swings wildly toward Joe Biden and Trump loses days later as the mail ballots are counted.” Trump and his team could work to “apply challenges and political pressure to reject a high share of mailed-in ballots counted after election day.”
Responding to the interview, Trump campaign communications director Tim Murtaugh said, “The news media should get out of the business of predicting the future.”
Or perhaps the news media is not predicting the future as much as helping to create it.
There is no doubt that with several states using COVID-19 as an excuse to force VBM and allowing ballot harvesting, the entire voting process is in question. Not only will the counting process require more time, but it also opens up to multiple forms of fraud, and the courts could be required to decide the results in a contested election.
With Hillary Clinton, John Podesta, and other Democrats urging Biden not to concede, and Democratic Party stooges such as Mendelsohn “warning” that Trump is planning on suppressing votes, the threat of anarchy and states seceding from the Union becomes increasingly possible. In what little time remains before this election, preparing for the worst might be the best thing you can do for yourself and your family.
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