Harry Enten, CNN’s political journalist and chief poll watcher, has just issued a warning: “Trump’s position has stabilized … [and] is no longer deteriorating.”
This is how an anti-Trump journalist awakens to the new reality that Trump has all but closed any gap that existed between him and his likely Democratic opponent for the presidency.
He has plenty of reasons to sound the warning, and mentions two on Thursday: “An Iowa poll out Wednesday from Monmouth University makes the point well: Trump comes in with 48% to Biden’s 45%, a 3-point margin.”
And a Des Moines Register poll showed Trump ahead of Biden. Enten expresses his concerns carefully: “When you look at the average state poll … you see no sign that Trump is doing worse than in the early summer.”
He admitted, “Overall, pretty much every method agrees that Trump has, if nothing else, stopped the bleeding.”
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The Trump campaign has done a lot more than just stopped the bleeding. The “bleeding” was never real. When pollster John McLaughlin was hired by President Trump to confirm his suspicions that something was wrong with most of the mainline poll results, McLaughlin concluded: “The latest skewed media polls must be intentional. It’s clear that NBC, ABC and CNN … are consistently under-polling Republicans and therefore reporting biased polls.”
That bias, according to McLaughlin, skews the results by as much as nine points in Biden’s favor. Taking that into account, Biden has been even with or behind Trump in most polls for months.
In fact, as Cort Kirkwood pointed out in The New American on Thursday, “Biden’s lead has steadily declined, on average, since last September,” and according to the poll aggregator RealClearPolitics that decline has accelerated by another three points just in the last 10 days.
Behind these poll numbers is a raft of evidence that gives the incumbent every reason to be confident of keeping his office in November. It was Enten himself who first noted Trump’s improved standing among young black voters who, he said, “could make a difference” in a close race in November.
A Harvard Youth Poll showed that a group it called “Multicultural Moderates” are increasingly supporting President Trump. Guy Cecil, head of Priorities USA Action, the Democrat Party’s largest super-PAC, expressed nervousness about Trump’s inroads into the usually safe voting bloc of younger African Americans. At the time Trump was polling in the low 20s, far above the usual six-to-eight percent support that group gave to Republican presidential candidates in past elections.
And that bloc’s shift toward the incumbent has continued to increase. As The New American reported on Thursday, results from the American University Black Swing Voter Project show that less than half of that voting bloc supports Biden.
Zogby has tracked Trump’s success in keeping “swing voters” in his camp. The RNC continues to register thousands more voters in key battleground states than does the DNC. Independents are moving toward Trump, to the chagrin of Vanity Fair, which complained last week that “Trump still retains an edge with independents on the economy — a critical advantage. To the extent that the economy rebounds in the fall, Trump may be able to convince independents he’s a safer bet to keep things moving.”
Trump’s “Silent Majority” is growing as well, thanks to BLM and Antifa thugs threatening citizens across the land. As Mark Smith, head of a heavyweight Washington public affairs consulting firm, put it: “I will argue very strongly that that silent majority … thanks to the folks at Black Lives Matter … are making more and more recruits [for the president].”
There’s the “enthusiasm” gap between the two candidates. In its first “virtual” fundraiser, the Trump Victory Finance Committee raised $20 million compared to the best Biden could do at just $7.6 million.
And then there’s the “primary model” predicting a 91-percent chance of Trump repeating in November based upon results from primaries.
But the best proof of all about Trump’s lead comes from Enten himself. If he, and CNN, finally admit it, it must be true.
Image of Donald Trump: Screenshot from winred.com
An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to The New American, primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].
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