Podcast: Play in new window | Download ()
Subscribe: Android | RSS | More
Ruling-class Democrats might whisper to each other and even tell the media that Joe Biden can’t defeat President Trump, but it appears that rank-and-file voters don’t agree.
Biden’s latest numbers in the Real Clear Politics average of voter polls put him 5.4 points ahead of Elizabeth Warren, a shade less than last week’s six-point lead, but still close to what he polled then.
Two weeks ago, Warren was neck-and-neck with the former vice president and just a half-point behind. But now, news of the Biden-Burisma influence-peddling scandal having passed, he seems to have regained his own momentum and is still the Democrat to beat.
Socialist Bernie Sanders is where he has been, well behind Biden in third place.
The Numbers
Biden defeated Warren in the latest roundup 27.2-21.8, with Sanders wheezing in at 17.3.
But Biden’s slim 5.4-point margin doesn’t quite reveal his strength in three of the last six polls, five of which he won.
Though Warren defeated Biden by seven points in the latest Quinnipiac poll, October 17-21, CNN October 17-20 handed Biden a substantial 15-point win: 34-19. Sanders was at 16.
Biden took the Economist/YouGov poll of October 20-22 by one, but then posted another big win of eight points in The Hill/Harris X survey of October 21-22: 27-19.
Emerson October 18-21 was a six-point victory over Warren, 27-21, but the senator from Massachusetts came in third in that survey. Sanders posted 25 to come in second.
Another big margin for Biden was Politico/Morning Consult, October 16-20: nine points, 30-21. Sanders was at 18.
{modulepos inner_text_ad}
Warren Run Stalled?
This early in the race, polls don’t reveal much other than a candidate’s strength among small groups of voters.
And as Hillary Clinton found out when Donald Trump beat her in 2016, polls can be misleading. Clinton bested Trump in 85 percent of more than 300 polls conducted between May 2015 and Election Day, but still lost the election. Trump’s 306-232 electoral victory showed that polling data are only accurate insofar as they measure voter sentiments, not how the votes breakdown by state, which is what matters.
Then again, the RCP average was accurate in predicting Clinton’s “official” victory in the popular vote: 65.8 million to Trump’s near 63 million.
That’s significant for Biden given that he has led in the RCP average since October of last year, and party primaries are, indeed, popular votes. Biden has prevailed in 149 of 163 polls, or 91.4 percent, in many cases by more than 15 points. Warren has taken just 10 surveys, Sanders, one. Just three were tied.
Those numbers show an overwhelming deep reservoir of support of Biden, Warren’s nearly closing the gap entirely two weeks ago regardless.
Having lost some momentum concomitantly with the bad publicity over Biden-Burisma, the former veep seems to have gotten his second wind and is rebuilding his lead.
Iowa, New Hampshire
But those numbers are national.
Warren fares better in the early caucus/primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire.
In Iowa, where Democrats will caucus on February 3 to choose a candidate, Warren leads Biden 22.5-18.8, a 3.7-point margin. Warren’s lead there is largely attributable to an eight-point victory in the October 19-22 poll by Iowa State University. Biden prevailed in a USA Today/Suffolk poll of October 16-18 by one point, and they tied in two others.
In New Hampshire, her margin is 3.3, 27.3-24. Warren took all three of the most recent surveys. Granite Staters vote on February 11.
Of note in Iowa is South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg’s taking third place from Sanders. Buttigieg polls at 15.8, while Sanders is at 15.3.
Will Clinton Run?
Yet the RCP numbers don’t measure Biden’s strength among Democrat elites. They fear he can’t make it through a tough election campaign against Trump, as The New American reported yesterday, citing the New York Times.
Though Biden defeats Trump in the RCP averages on the general election, top Democrats are looking for another candidate. “Since the last debate, just anecdotally, I’ve had five or six people ask me: ‘Is there anybody else?’” a top Democrat told the Times.
That “anybody else” might just be Clinton, now known as the “Queen of Warmongers” thanks to Democrat presidential contender Tulsi Gabbard, whom Clinton foolishly accused of being a “Russian asset.”
Last night, Clinton advisor Philippe Reines told Tucker Carlson that Clinton might run. “If she thought she had the best odds of beating Donald Trump I think she would think about it long and hard,” Reines said.
And, he said, Clinton might “be the best person, not only to beat Donald Trump, but to govern after Donald Trump, which is a part we don’t talk about much. And, look, you can make fun of her all you want, but 65 million people voted for her and that’s second more to anyone except Barack Obama.”
Image: flickr.com / Gage Skidmore
