Democrat frontrunner Joe Biden has dropped back a shade closer to main contender Elizabeth Warren in polling data from the Real Clear Politics national average, but he maintains a relatively solid lead.
And he’s also received good news from New Hampshire: The former veep has recovered from a four-point deficit against Warren and pulled even.
Despite his failing fortunes in Iowa, Biden still commands the race and remains the candidate the others must overcome.
National Numbers
Biden’s lead as of today is six points, 26.8 to Warren’s 20.8. Sanders remained in third with 17 percent voter support, while Pete Buttigieg is bringing up the rear with 7.5
Biden’s numbers have been solid since the last poll in which Warren prevailed, Quinnipiac of October 17-21. Warren won that contest by seven points.
But of the 16 polls since then, she hasn’t bested Biden even once. Biden has won 15 and tied one. That was Monmouth, October 30-November 3, which had Biden and Warren at 23 points each.
In nine of the 16 polls, Biden won by 10 points or more and managed a 15-point spread on the Harvard/Harris survey of October 29-31. Biden scored a 33 in that poll against 18 for Bernie Sanders. Warren polled just 15 points and came in third.
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Other significant numbers for Biden are these:
• In the last 10 surveys, he has dropped under 25 points just once, in the Monmouth survey in which he tied Warren.
• Three of those 10 gave him more than 30 points.
• Biden’s average in those polls is 28.1 to Warren’s 20.4.
• Biden has not posted a number below 20 points since August.
Last time The New American reported Biden’s RCP average, he was 8.8 points head of Warren, 29.1-20.3.
That lead came just weeks after Warren had pulled to within a half-point of Biden, meaning she was, as a practical matter, tied.
Warren’s fortunes didn’t last long, and she now seems to have settled back into second place.
For his part, Sanders has rarely been second behind Biden, much less outpolled him. Sanders was running a solid second behind Biden from last October through about May when Warren pulled out of the single digits and surpassed the socialist from Vermont.
Iowa, New Hampshire
The numbers are looking up for Biden in New Hampshire. Last time TNA looked on the Granite State, Biden was trailing Warren by four points 25-21.
Now he’s tied with the senator from Massachusetts at 19.7 points, with Sanders close behind at 19. Buttigieg is a distant fourth at 11.3.
Biden’s best performance in New Hampshire was the most recent Quinnipiac survey of November 6-10. He bested Warren 20-16, his first victory in an RCP poll in New Hampshire in 60 days. Until then, he was losing consistently.
New Hampshire voters go the polls on February 11.
But not all of Biden’s fortunes are rising. In Iowa, where voters caucus on February 3, Biden has dropped to fourth place.
In the bellwether Hawkeye state, Warren leads Buttigieg 21.8-17.5. Sanders is third at 15.8. Biden pulled 15.5 percent support.
The Other Candidates
As the RCP national average goes, the race is between Biden, Sanders, and Warren, with Buttigieg, again, in fourth at 7.5. But after him, the numbers for the other candidates drop off sharply.
Kamala Harris: 5.5
Amy Klobuchar: 5.5
Cory Booker: 5.5
Andrew Yang: 2.0
Julián Castro: 1.5
Tom Steyer: 1.0
Steven Bullock: 0.8
Marianne Williamson: 0.8
It won’t be long before the other candidates reckon that they can’t beat Biden or Warren and begin dropping out. Their supporters will drift mostly to Biden and Warren.
Buttigieg and Sanders will likely be the last two candidates to drop out of the race before either Biden or Warren concedes to the other.
Biden’s Obstacles
Biden faces two possible problems. The first is what the impeachment of President Trump will divulge about the Biden-Burisma influence-peddling scandal, which will likely harm his last chance for the presidency if Trump calls the former vice president and his son to testify.
That scandal is what prompted Trump’s request of Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky, during the now-famous phone call, to investigate the Bidens.
The second is Biden’s age and stamina. Biden is 76 years old and showing signs of his age, and Democrats who fear he can’t and won’t beat Trump are discussing whether they must recruit another candidate who can. Some have speculated that candidate might be Hillary Clinton.
Photo: AP Images
