On many levels the latest poll from Gallup should give great comfort to Republicans ahead of the midterm elections now just six weeks away: Their party is enjoying its highest favorability among Americans in more than seven years. Not only is the gain from a year ago startling, it’s an improvement reflected across gender and income levels, and it even reflects Republican support from independents who are leaning in their favor.
Said Gallup:
Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011….
The overall increase in the favorable image of the Republican Party is the result of a jump in positive views of Republicans, including independents who lean toward the party. The percentage of Republicans and leaners with favorable views of their party grew from 67% last September to 85% now.
Among men, Democrats “have completely lost their advantage,” wrote Breitbart. “A year ago, 40 percent of men viewed the Democrats favorably, while just 37 percent viewed the GOP favorably. Now Republicans are in favor with 50 percent of men [while] favorability toward Democrats climbed [just] one point … giving the Republicans a 9 point advantage.”
Among women, gains were also impressive. A year ago, just 35 percent of American women favored Republicans, but Gallup reported that 40 percent of them now view the party favorably. At the same time, Democrat favorability among women dropped by one point.
Across all income levels, Republicans are enjoying significant gains in favorability as well. Among those earning less than $30,000 a year, Republican Party favorability jumped six percent; among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000 a year it jumped an eye-popping 13 percent; while among those making $75,000 a year or more, Republican favorability rose four percent.
Late last year, Republicans passed Trump’s tax-reform program, with positive results pouring in from nearly every sector, including increases on wages that had largely been stagnant on an inflation-adjusted basis for years. The litany of Trump’s other triumphs fills pages — so many in fact that PromisesKept.com has been forced to divvy them up among the following topics: economy and jobs, immigration, foreign policy, national security and defense, deregulation, land and agriculture, law and justice, energy and the environment, government accountability, health care, infrastructure and technology, social programs, education, and support for veterans.
The cumulative effect is being felt in nearly every part of the country, and as Gallup reports, credit is increasingly being given to the Republicans while support for the Democrats who have steadfastly resisted nearly every one of Trump’s agenda items has flattened, and in some demographics, actually declined.
A key question is: Just how much of this is likely to show up in November? Just because Americans are viewing the Republican Party more favorably than any time in the last seven years doesn’t automatically translate into victory at the polls.
But it might. Said Gallup:
For the Republican Party, less than two months away from an election that could see them lose control of both the House and the Senate, gains in public favorability are a welcome sign. The party has been wallowing in favorable ratings below 40% for most of the last five years after rarely sinking that low in the previous two decades.
No matter how much or how little party favorability affects elections, the fact that Republicans are more likely to view their party favorably than a year ago can be considered a positive indicator for the party, particularly if a more positive image boosts Republican turnout.
RealClearPolitics.com aggregates polls on races in both the Senate and the House. At present, RCP shows Republican senators firmly in control of 47 seats while the Democrats will likely hold 44, with nine seats up for grabs.
Generic House polls show a Democrat advantage that has been declining from double digits ever since the first of the year. At this writing, the average of the last five most recent polls (taken from September 9 through September 19) shows the Democrat advantage down to six points.
What’s remarkable is that this time period — 10 days through last Wednesday — was headlined by increasing evidence of the Deep State’s determination to emasculate the Trump administration, including its last-minute surprise attack on his nominee for the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh.
The improving image of the Republican Party as reported by Gallup bodes well for the party in the midterms especially, as Gallup noted, “if a more positive image boosts Republican [voter] turnout [in November].”
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An Ivy League graduate and former investment advisor, Bob is a regular contributor to The New American magazine and blogs frequently at LightFromTheRight.com, primarily on economics and politics. He can be reached at [email protected].
