On September 22, the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research (BCDC-NBER) announced that the recession (it began in December 2007) had ended in June 2009. Obviously, all of those out-of-work Americans clogging the unemployment lines and lining up at job fairs didn’t get the good news.
Social Security recipients will go a second consecutive year without receiving a cost-of-living adjustment in 2011, according to various press reports. The announcement, which will formally be made when the federal government reveals Consumer Price Index figures October 15, amounts to what MSNBC says in the subtitle to its article on the subject that the “expected announcement before election couldn't be worse for Democrats.”
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, is worried about many things. In March he worried about the future of the economy. “The important lesson,” he wrote, “is that bank regulators cannot fully or accurately forecast whether, for example, subprime mortgages will turn toxic…. A large fraction of such difficult forecasts will invariably be proved wrong…. Anticipating the onset of crisis … appears out of our forecasting reach.”